Mind Your Ps and Cs

Amongst all the conversations and papers relating to environmental and social collapse we will come across some P terms: problem, predicament, and (wicked) problem being the most prominent. As well as collapse itself, we will also come across some other C terms: complicated, complex, and chaos to name the most common.

Let us try to sort these out. What does each term mean, and how are they similar or different from each other.

Beginning with the Ps:

A Problem can be thought of as a difficulty or puzzle that has a solution. This does not imply that the solution is always obvious.

Problems normally have clearly defined (although some may be ill-defined) components, parameters, and boundaries. The links between these are also usually able to be defined and enumerated. Logic and reason can be applied to solving a problem.

(Wicked) Problems can be thought of similarly. The main difference however is that any solution is likely to create further problems. Solutions to wicked problems have a ripple effect. Sometimes the ripples can be unforeseen in advance. Thus, although the original problem may have been solved, the solution has left us with further (wicked) problems to contend with.

Predicaments are worse. A predicament has no solution. The word predicament is related to being able to make a prediction which seems to suggest that a solution is possible. However, somewhere in the 16^th century it took on the now familiar sense of predicating an unpleasant outcome. In that century it may have derived from the Middle English word lurken (or lorken) meaning to lie in wait, to remain hidden, and to ambush.

This Middle English etymology makes its present day meaning apparent. Predicaments lie in wait and hidden ready to ambush us. Just when we think we may have a solution, a predicament jumps out from its place of hiding and surprises us. Predicaments rob us of any thought of being able to solve anything. We are left stranded and bereft.

A predicament, however, may have an outcome. But that outcome is one that we cannot predict, cannot plan, and certainly cannot control. This is why the environmental and social collapse is referred to as a predicament.

Now for the Cs

If something is Complicated then it consists of many parts, often linked in linear, predictable ways. Each component can be recognised. An analogy could be an engine. An engine is a complicated piece of machinery, and all the parts interact in an intelligible and purposive manner. If the engine stops working, a mechanic can determine which part is at fault and thus make the engine run again.

A Complex system also has many parts, but unlike a complicated system, not all the parts are identifiable, and the links between them are immeasurable. A complex system is non-linear and is also self-organising. Being self-organising means that if one part of the system is interfered with then the rest of the system will attempt to redress the harm by altering other parts of the system. The changes made by this self-organisation are often unforeseen, unpredictable, and have consequences that may be unintended.

Chaos Theory is a branch of mathematics that attempts to analyse systems that are dynamic in nature. The most widely known aspect of Chaos Theory is the Butterfly Effect which is stated in various analogous ways. The most common is that Chaos Theory tells us that a butterfly flapping its wings over Tokyo can cause a thunderstorm in the Amazon. This is known in the Chaos Theory jargon as ‘sensitive dependence on initial conditions’; a small change in initial conditions can have an enormous impact on the final outcome.

Implications

It is important to note that when we attempt to explain, and then intervene, in the environmental and social context of today we need to understand what sort of system we are dealing with.

The systems we face today are not simple complicated problems; they are not even complicated (wicked) problems.

The systems we face today are complex predicaments and are chaotic in nature.

Hence, we cannot solve our way out of this predicament. Furthermore, none of the individual problems that we might identify can be solved without, at the same time, causing other problems to arise.

Our thinking then must be systemic, rather than piecemeal. Homelessness, for example, cannot be solved by housing alone. Warfare cannot ceased simply by reducing the armaments. The environmental crisis cannot be solved by focussing exclusively on carbon emissions.

Even with a systems analysis, our interference in the complex system that is the Earth, may not result in the outcome we would choose.

That being the case, the best way we can approach the future is to learn (Radical) Acceptance. But that topic is for another blog.

Meantime, we can try to mind our Ps and Cs.