Prediction, Prophecy, or Probability

Nostradamus

This blog begins with a supposition that globally we are in a mess; although predicament might be a more technical term than mess. The mess is made up of environmental, social, personal, and familial elements.

Can we get out of this mess? The answer to that seems to clearly be “no!” The reasons for this answer are many, and a later blogpiece may address those reasons. One of the compelling reasons for answering “no” however is that collectively we do not appear to realise that we are in a mess.

If we are unable to get out of the mess, can we get through it? By that I mean can we pass through a bottleneck and emerge, as a living species, on the other side of the bottleneck. We have been through a bottleneck before, although most of us won’t remember doing so; after all, it happened almost one million years ago. At that time 98% of the Earth’s hominid population failed to survive, leaving only approximately 1,280 reproductive individuals to make it through.¹

So, it has been done before. Could it happen again? Could we get through this mess and pass through a bottleneck to a future in which Homo sapiens is one of the surviving species on the planet?

There are at least three major techniques by which we might answer that. We could predict the future, based on previous trends, and using a logical approach to analysis. We might approach a soothsayer or someone with special authority from a divine being to prophesise the future. Or, thirdly, we could assign probabilities to a range of scenarios.

As the Latin etymology of the word implies, prediction literally means to say before. Prediction usually implies one prescribed outcome. To say something will happen before it has happened is a recipe for being accused, at best of being wrong, at worst of lying.

In the current situation (in the midst of a mess) there are some who take the techno-optimist view that our future technological expertise will enable us to get through the mess. Others proclaim that this is the end of the road for humans. The Sixth Mass Extinction that is upon us, they say, includes Homo sapiens as one of the species that will go extinct. Then, there are many others who take a number of different positions between these two extremes.

All of them make a prediction that excludes all other possibilities.

What about prophecy? Can we reliably seek the announcement of a prophet to foretell the future. Some do. Etymologically, prophecy derives from the Old French word profete meaning a prophet or soothsayer. Prior to the Old French the word goes back to the Greek word propheteia which meant to have the gift of being able to interpret the will of God. Hence, prophecy has a spiritual or divine factor in its meaning, and a prophecy is passed on to a human prophet via some supernatural being.

For many early prophets the purpose of their prophecy was to warn of impending consequences should changes in behaviour not occur. For later prophets (e.g. the well-known Nostradamus) the prophecies were less about warnings and more about outlying future events. Some prophesies succeeded, but many (perhaps most) did not.

Prophecy too, is not a reliable foretelling of the future.

Finally, we could assign probabilities to a range of future scenarios. This is what most futurists do. Probability also has an interesting etymological history. During the 16^th century it meant that something was likely to be true. By the early 18^th century the word had taken on the statistical meaning of the frequency with which a proposition is true measured against experience. Hence, absolute certainty would have a probability of 100% and complete uncertainty would be 0%. The probability of something being true, in the statistical sense, lies somewhere between 0% - 100%, rarely being set at either of the extremes.

Thus, a number of future scenarios could be described and assigned a probability of accurately depicting what actually happens in the future.

Coming back now to the earlier question. Can we get through the mess? Furthermore, if we can get through, will those who do so emerge with a more healthy and sustainable culture?

I am extremely reluctant to predict the future, as being certain of what the future will bring is impossible for me to predict (if you’ll excuse the circular argument.) I do not have access to any divine or supernatural message and so I am unable to prophesy anything about the future.

It is, however, possible for me to assign probabilities towards differing future scenarios. Some of those possible scenarios hopefully will include societies and cultures that are wise enough to not make the mistakes we have made in getting ourselves into this mess. Hopefully too, those future societies will be able to inhabit the Earth in a sustainable and cooperative manner, respecting all the Earth’s creatures.  

For us now, on the edge of this mess and peering into the bottleneck we might ask ourselves: How can we skew the probabilities towards a higher chance of betterment in a post-collapse future?

The answer to this is not what we do in the future.

The answer lies in what we do here and now.

The answer exists in what seeds we sow today that may bear fruit tomorrow. The answer rests on our ability to plant the seeds, knowing that we will not be fortunate enough to eat the fruits thereof.

And that enterprise involves giving up the paradigms we have been living with and adopting new paradigms.

How we do that is the subject of another blogpiece.

Notes

1. Juliet Dubois, Daily Galaxy, 5 June 2025, Only 1,280 Survived: The Near-Extinction Event That Nearly Wiped Out Humanity 1 Million Years Ago